Qualification · Qualification 50

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

127.45 – 278.92

13%87%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

176 – 102

Prediction missed · off by 112.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 281.2 ±15.4

9502Idigna

Season APEX 36.5Event APEX 34.15Rank 12Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

10247RedFox

Season APEX 26.6Event APEX 20Rank 33Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 79

11141AlphaZ

Season APEX 218.1Event APEX 73.3Rank 8Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 392.8 ±13.9

9029Team NF

Season APEX 203.7Event APEX 151.59Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9523Archers

Season APEX 45.8Event APEX 40.41Rank 22Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 76

7594Nautilus

Season APEX 143.3Event APEX 86.92Rank 7Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9502, 10247, 11141

/ 100 compat

Projected

127.5 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 9502, 10247, 11141

Auto

33.0 29%

Teleop

57.9 51%

Endgame

23.6 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9029, 9523, 7594

/ 100 compat

Projected

278.9 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 9029, 9523, 7594

Auto

47.1 17%

Teleop

174.9 64%

Endgame

52.0 19%

Strengths

· 9029 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.69 · Blue 2.27

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score127.5pts

Blue projected score278.9pts

Red win probability13%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -151.5
Score range: 100–306
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 278 vs event baseline 149.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

281.2Season APEX392.8

33Auto47.1

57.9Teleop174.9

23.6Endgame52

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	52
teleop	99	24
endgame	31	11
foul	10	15
total	176	102

Result

Final score

176 – 102

Prediction missed · off by 112.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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