Qualification · Qualification 49

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

64.53 – 259.92

8%92%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

15 – 233

Prediction correct · off by 38.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 133.7 ±14.6

10043Conscius Robotics

Season APEX 39.7Event APEX 10.53Rank 18Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11154XR-Boot

Season APEX 37.9Event APEX 30.16Rank 20Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

9024Callister

Season APEX 56.1Event APEX 23.84Rank 21Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 294.1 ±16.7

8783Apeiron

Season APEX 55.1Event APEX 51.84Rank 14Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

9479CREDENTIS

Provisional

Season APEX 21.4Event APEX 11.57Rank 29Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

6989KAISER

Season APEX 217.6Event APEX 196.51Rank 2Record 11-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10043, 11154, 9024

/ 100 compat

Projected

64.5 pts

~0.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 10043, 11154, 9024

Auto

13.9 27%

Teleop

23.9 47%

Endgame

13.4 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8783, 9479, 6989

/ 100 compat

Projected

259.9 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 8783, 9479, 6989

Auto

44.1 17%

Teleop

142.8 56%

Endgame

70.1 27%

Strengths

· 6989 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.58 · Blue 2.39

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score64.5pts

Blue projected score259.9pts

Red win probability8%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -195.4
Score range: 38–287
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 248 vs event baseline 150.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

133.7Season APEX294.1

13.9Auto44.1

23.9Teleop142.8

13.4Endgame70.1

0Consistency34

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	31
teleop	2	140
endgame	0	62
foul	0	0
total	15	233

Result

Final score

15 – 233

Prediction correct · off by 38.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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