Qualification · Qualification 48

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

256.77 – 43.57

93%7%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

195 – 65

Prediction correct · off by 41.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 351.5 ±15.6

9232IBBTECH

Season APEX 107.4Event APEX 91.03Rank 6Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10548TechTonic Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX -2.1Event APEX 0.68Rank 31Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

9609Paraducks

Season APEX 246.2Event APEX 165.06Rank 3Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 126.1 ±17.5

9473CYGNUS ROBOTICS

Season APEX 23.1Event APEX -3.81Rank 25Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 80

8777SafranTech

Provisional

Season APEX 37.3Event APEX 12.11Rank 32Record 2-9-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

10502HARPIA ROBOTICS

Season APEX 65.7Event APEX 35.27Rank 19Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9232, 10548, 9609

/ 100 compat

Projected

256.8 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 9232, 10548, 9609

Auto

55.9 22%

Teleop

139.5 55%

Endgame

58.8 23%

Strengths

· 9609 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9473, 8777, 10502

/ 100 compat

Projected

43.6 pts

~0.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 9473, 8777, 10502

Auto

20.6 61%

Teleop

-5.7 0%

Endgame

19.0 56%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.37 · Blue 0.47

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score256.8pts

Blue projected score43.6pts

Red win probability93%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 213.2
Score range: 17–284
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 260 vs event baseline 150.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

351.5Season APEX126.1

55.9Auto20.6

139.5Teleop-5.7

58.8Endgame19

122Consistency58

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	71	14
teleop	85	27
endgame	39	24
foul	0	0
total	195	65

Result

Final score

195 – 65

Prediction correct · off by 41.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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