Qualification · Qualification 47

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

67.03 – 161.77

24%76%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

124 – 80

Prediction missed · off by 69.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 212.2 ±13.5

9583Lavender Robotics

Season APEX 34.5Event APEX -7.44Rank 28Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7594Nautilus

Season APEX 143.3Event APEX 80.87Rank 7Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8500ROBEST Robotics

Season APEX 34.4Event APEX -6.4Rank 13Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 168.2 ±19.1

9523Archers

Season APEX 45.8Event APEX 48.5Rank 22Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 76

9074Roboant

Season APEX 51Event APEX 45.15Rank 26Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 77

9021uSELESScASE

Season APEX 71.4Event APEX 68.12Rank 15Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 77

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9583, 7594, 8500

/ 100 compat

Projected

67 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 9583, 7594, 8500

Auto

4.0 6%

Teleop

36.0 57%

Endgame

23.0 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9523, 9074, 9021

/ 100 compat

Projected

161.8 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 9523, 9074, 9021

Auto

25.5 16%

Teleop

83.7 54%

Endgame

45.6 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.94 · Blue 1.98

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score67pts

Blue projected score161.8pts

Red win probability24%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -94.7
Score range: 40–189
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 204 vs event baseline 151.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

212.2Season APEX168.2

4Auto25.5

36Teleop83.7

23Endgame45.6

48Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	8	22
teleop	98	48
endgame	18	10
foul	0	0
total	124	80

Result

Final score

124 – 80

Prediction missed · off by 69.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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