Qualification · Qualification 46

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

243.49 – 133.49

80%20%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

187 – 148

Prediction correct · off by 35.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 304.4 ±17.3

7539Elev8

Season APEX 213.1Event APEX 207.88Rank 1Record 11-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10470Sancar Robotics

Season APEX 49.5Event APEX 28.24Rank 11Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

10216QUANTUMBEE

Provisional

Season APEX 41.8Event APEX 7.37Rank 30Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 323.4 ±16.7

8220Space Tigers MBA Robotics

Season APEX 58.6Event APEX 29.39Rank 10Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

10353HATAY ROBOTICS

Provisional

Season APEX 46.7Event APEX 32.36Rank 27Record 4-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

11141AlphaZ

Season APEX 218.1Event APEX 71.74Rank 8Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7539, 10470, 10216

/ 100 compat

Projected

243.5 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 7539, 10470, 10216

Auto

47.7 19%

Teleop

135.9 54%

Endgame

65.9 26%

Strengths

· 7539 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8220, 10353, 11141

/ 100 compat

Projected

133.5 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 8220, 10353, 11141

Auto

26.8 20%

Teleop

90.8 66%

Endgame

19.8 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.14 · Blue 0.91

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score243.5pts

Blue projected score133.5pts

Red win probability80%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 110
Score range: 106–270
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 335 vs event baseline 151.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

304.4Season APEX323.4

47.7Auto26.8

135.9Teleop90.8

65.9Endgame19.8

6Consistency6

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	56	38
teleop	102	96
endgame	14	9
foul	15	5
total	187	148

Result

Final score

187 – 148

Prediction correct · off by 35.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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