Qualification · Qualification 44

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

116.46 – 27.46

75%25%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

148 – 66

Prediction correct · off by 35 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 184.9 ±16.5

9232IBBTECH

Season APEX 107.4Event APEX 87.72Rank 6Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9024Callister

Season APEX 56.1Event APEX 19.21Rank 21Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9479CREDENTIS

Provisional

Season APEX 21.4Event APEX 9.53Rank 29Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 108.3 ±16.4

9583Lavender Robotics

Season APEX 34.5Event APEX -12.32Rank 28Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8777SafranTech

Provisional

Season APEX 37.3Event APEX 6.71Rank 32Record 2-9-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

9502Idigna

Season APEX 36.5Event APEX 33.07Rank 12Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9232, 9024, 9479

/ 100 compat

Projected

116.5 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 9232, 9024, 9479

Auto

26.6 23%

Teleop

55.1 47%

Endgame

35.1 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9583, 8777, 9502

/ 100 compat

Projected

27.5 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 9583, 8777, 9502

Auto

10.9 35%

Teleop

4.6 15%

Endgame

15.7 50%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.04 · Blue 0.88

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score116.5pts

Blue projected score27.5pts

Red win probability75%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 89
Score range: 0–143
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 214 vs event baseline 152.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

184.9Season APEX108.3

26.6Auto10.9

55.1Teleop4.6

35.1Endgame15.7

78Consistency44

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	6
teleop	92	33
endgame	27	27
foul	0	0
total	148	66

Result

Final score

148 – 66

Prediction correct · off by 35 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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