Qualification · Qualification 43

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

208.34 – 85.57

82%18%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

217 – 165

Prediction correct · off by 44 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 311.8 ±16

9029Team NF

Season APEX 203.7Event APEX 151.36Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10470Sancar Robotics

Season APEX 49.5Event APEX 28.1Rank 11Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

8220Space Tigers MBA Robotics

Season APEX 58.6Event APEX 28.88Rank 10Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 297.8 ±16.7

10216QUANTUMBEE

Provisional

Season APEX 41.8Event APEX 0.54Rank 30Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

11141AlphaZ

Season APEX 218.1Event APEX 63.27Rank 8Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11154XR-Boot

Season APEX 37.9Event APEX 21.76Rank 20Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9029, 10470, 8220

/ 100 compat

Projected

208.3 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 9029, 10470, 8220

Auto

35.9 18%

Teleop

121.2 60%

Endgame

45.2 22%

Strengths

· 9029 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10216, 11141, 11154

/ 100 compat

Projected

85.6 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 10216, 11141, 11154

Auto

24.1 26%

Teleop

53.7 57%

Endgame

16.3 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.16 · Blue 0.85

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score208.3pts

Blue projected score85.6pts

Red win probability82%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 122.8
Score range: 59–235
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 382 vs event baseline 151.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

311.8Season APEX297.8

35.9Auto24.1

121.2Teleop53.7

45.2Endgame16.3

7Consistency6

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	51	25
teleop	145	82
endgame	6	53
foul	15	5
total	217	165

Result

Final score

217 – 165

Prediction correct · off by 44 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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