Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

48.63 – 130.42

27%73%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

35 – 220

Prediction correct · off by 51.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 122.5 ±17.5

10353HATAY ROBOTICS

Provisional

Season APEX 46.7Event APEX 42.14Rank 27Record 4-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

9473CYGNUS ROBOTICS

Season APEX 23.1Event APEX 0.08Rank 25Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 80

10244WOLFS ROBOTICS

Season APEX 52.7Event APEX 6.41Rank 17Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 193.2 ±16

10247RedFox

Season APEX 26.6Event APEX 11.22Rank 33Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 79

8500ROBEST Robotics

Season APEX 34.4Event APEX -16.59Rank 13Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

9025Mechameleons

Season APEX 132.2Event APEX 135.79Rank 4Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10353, 9473, 10244

/ 100 compat

Projected

48.6 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 10353, 9473, 10244

Auto

18.4 38%

Teleop

24.0 49%

Endgame

6.4 13%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10247, 8500, 9025

/ 100 compat

Projected

130.4 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 10247, 8500, 9025

Auto

35.8 28%

Teleop

52.4 41%

Endgame

38.4 30%

Strengths

· 9025 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.93 · Blue 1.93

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score48.6pts

Blue projected score130.4pts

Red win probability27%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -81.8
Score range: 22–157
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 255 vs event baseline 149.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

122.5Season APEX193.2

18.4Auto35.8

24Teleop52.4

6.4Endgame38.4

56Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	41
teleop	12	74
endgame	9	45
foul	0	60
total	35	220

Result

Final score

35 – 220

Prediction correct · off by 51.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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