Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

260.38 – 113.07

86%14%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

254 – 53

Prediction correct · off by 33.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 278.6 ±16.7

10142ANDROMEDA

Season APEX 19.7Event APEX -0.92Rank 23Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 76

7539Elev8

Season APEX 213.1Event APEX 211.4Rank 1Record 11-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9523Archers

Season APEX 45.8Event APEX 49.9Rank 22Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 114.6 ±18.1

10548TechTonic Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX -2.1Event APEX 14.95Rank 31Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

10502HARPIA ROBOTICS

Season APEX 65.7Event APEX 43.01Rank 19Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9074Roboant

Season APEX 51Event APEX 55.11Rank 26Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 77

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10142, 7539, 9523

/ 100 compat

Projected

260.4 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 10142, 7539, 9523

Auto

49.5 19%

Teleop

143.0 55%

Endgame

68.1 26%

Strengths

· 7539 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10548, 10502, 9074

/ 100 compat

Projected

113.1 pts

~0.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 10548, 10502, 9074

Auto

27.7 28%

Teleop

48.1 49%

Endgame

23.3 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.22 · Blue 0.64

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score260.4pts

Blue projected score113.1pts

Red win probability86%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 147.3
Score range: 86–287
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 307 vs event baseline 149.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

278.6Season APEX114.6

49.5Auto27.7

143Teleop48.1

68.1Endgame23.3

0Consistency44

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	42	16
teleop	140	25
endgame	72	7
foul	0	5
total	254	53

Result

Final score

254 – 53

Prediction correct · off by 33.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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