Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

155.65 – 76.76

73%27%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

123 – 95

Prediction correct · off by 25.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 286.3 ±14.1

9473CYGNUS ROBOTICS

Season APEX 23.1Event APEX 13.06Rank 25Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 80

9029Team NF

Season APEX 203.7Event APEX 130.98Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7672SCORPIONS ROBOTICS

Season APEX 59.5Event APEX 11.61Rank 24Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 131 ±19.1

9479CREDENTIS

Provisional

Season APEX 21.4Event APEX 2.24Rank 29Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

9074Roboant

Season APEX 51Event APEX 39.64Rank 26Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 77

8220Space Tigers MBA Robotics

Season APEX 58.6Event APEX 34.88Rank 10Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9473, 9029, 7672

/ 100 compat

Projected

155.6 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 9473, 9029, 7672

Auto

41.4 29%

Teleop

83.1 58%

Endgame

17.9 13%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9479, 9074, 8220

/ 100 compat

Projected

76.8 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 9479, 9074, 8220

Auto

16.8 21%

Teleop

45.0 57%

Endgame

16.5 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.93 · Blue 1.01

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score155.6pts

Blue projected score76.8pts

Red win probability73%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 78.9
Score range: 46–187
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 218 vs event baseline 169.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

286.3Season APEX131

41.4Auto16.8

83.1Teleop45

17.9Endgame16.5

0Consistency36

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	39	14
teleop	78	47
endgame	6	34
foul	0	0
total	123	95

Result

Final score

123 – 95

Prediction correct · off by 25.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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