Qualification · Qualification 39

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

169.53 – 155.79

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

136 – 118

Prediction correct · off by 35.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 317.3 ±13.5

9609Paraducks

Season APEX 246.2Event APEX 161.57Rank 3Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9583Lavender Robotics

Season APEX 34.5Event APEX -8.22Rank 28Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9467EsRobotik

Season APEX 36.6Event APEX 16.18Rank 16Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 257.9 ±14.1

7672SCORPIONS ROBOTICS

Season APEX 59.5Event APEX 7.22Rank 24Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7594Nautilus

Season APEX 143.3Event APEX 91.35Rank 7Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8783Apeiron

Season APEX 55.1Event APEX 57.22Rank 14Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9609, 9583, 9467

/ 100 compat

Projected

169.5 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 9609, 9583, 9467

Auto

54.4 31%

Teleop

91.4 52%

Endgame

30.4 17%

Strengths

· 9609 anchors offense
· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7672, 7594, 8783

/ 100 compat

Projected

155.8 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 7672, 7594, 8783

Auto

18.3 11%

Teleop

101.2 63%

Endgame

40.7 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.53 · Blue 1.52

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score169.5pts

Blue projected score155.8pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 13.7
Score range: 129–197
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 254 vs event baseline 150.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

317.3Season APEX257.9

54.4Auto18.3

91.4Teleop101.2

30.4Endgame40.7

88Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	8	21
teleop	96	73
endgame	32	24
foul	0	0
total	136	118

Result

Final score

136 – 118

Prediction correct · off by 35.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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