Qualification · Qualification 38

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

200.42 – 272.77

29%71%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

197 – 207

Prediction correct · off by 34.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 227.3 ±15.4

9502Idigna

Season APEX 36.5Event APEX 38.03Rank 12Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

8220Space Tigers MBA Robotics

Season APEX 58.6Event APEX 28.21Rank 10Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

9025Mechameleons

Season APEX 132.2Event APEX 134.18Rank 4Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 470.1 ±13.9

11141AlphaZ

Season APEX 218.1Event APEX 71.11Rank 8Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6989KAISER

Season APEX 217.6Event APEX 211.72Rank 2Record 11-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8500ROBEST Robotics

Season APEX 34.4Event APEX -10.06Rank 13Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9502, 8220, 9025

/ 100 compat

Projected

200.4 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 9502, 8220, 9025

Auto

35.4 18%

Teleop

94.9 48%

Endgame

68.1 34%

Strengths

· 9025 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11141, 6989, 8500

/ 100 compat

Projected

272.8 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 11141, 6989, 8500

Auto

45.7 17%

Teleop

156.9 58%

Endgame

68.1 25%

Strengths

· 6989 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.1 · Blue 1.98

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score200.4pts

Blue projected score272.8pts

Red win probability29%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -72.3
Score range: 173–300
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 404 vs event baseline 148.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

227.3Season APEX470.1

35.4Auto45.7

94.9Teleop156.9

68.1Endgame68.1

4Consistency1

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	50	44
teleop	103	113
endgame	44	45
foul	0	5
total	197	207

Result

Final score

197 – 207

Prediction correct · off by 34.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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