Qualification · Qualification 37

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

196.49 – 60.08

85%15%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

196 – 30

Prediction correct · off by 15.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 309.1 ±12.2

10043Conscius Robotics

Season APEX 39.7Event APEX 7.49Rank 18Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10502HARPIA ROBOTICS

Season APEX 65.7Event APEX 39.88Rank 19Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9029Team NF

Season APEX 203.7Event APEX 149.12Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 110.7 ±19.1

9523Archers

Season APEX 45.8Event APEX 52.57Rank 22Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 76

10216QUANTUMBEE

Provisional

Season APEX 41.8Event APEX 6.2Rank 30Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

9473CYGNUS ROBOTICS

Season APEX 23.1Event APEX 1.31Rank 25Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 80

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10043, 10502, 9029

/ 100 compat

Projected

196.5 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 10043, 10502, 9029

Auto

46.4 24%

Teleop

102.4 53%

Endgame

45.0 23%

Strengths

· 9029 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9523, 10216, 9473

/ 100 compat

Projected

60.1 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 9523, 10216, 9473

Auto

5.7 11%

Teleop

26.4 51%

Endgame

19.4 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.13 · Blue 0.7

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score196.5pts

Blue projected score60.1pts

Red win probability85%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 136.4
Score range: 33–223
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 226 vs event baseline 149.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

309.1Season APEX110.7

46.4Auto5.7

102.4Teleop26.4

45Endgame19.4

0Consistency56

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	54	22
teleop	49	5
endgame	3	3
foul	90	0
total	196	30

Result

Final score

196 – 30

Prediction correct · off by 15.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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