Qualification · Qualification 36

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

118.76 – 81.2

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

95 – 56

Prediction correct · off by 24.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 145.9 ±18.5

9467EsRobotik

Season APEX 36.6Event APEX 15.26Rank 16Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

11154XR-Boot

Season APEX 37.9Event APEX 25.09Rank 20Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

9021uSELESScASE

Season APEX 71.4Event APEX 78.41Rank 15Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 77

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 129.4 ±17.5

10353HATAY ROBOTICS

Provisional

Season APEX 46.7Event APEX 47.69Rank 27Record 4-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

9024Callister

Season APEX 56.1Event APEX 20.82Rank 21Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10247RedFox

Season APEX 26.6Event APEX 12.69Rank 33Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 79

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9467, 11154, 9021

/ 100 compat

Projected

118.8 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 9467, 11154, 9021

Auto

20.1 17%

Teleop

73.8 61%

Endgame

26.8 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10353, 9024, 10247

/ 100 compat

Projected

81.2 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 10353, 9024, 10247

Auto

16.8 20%

Teleop

56.3 67%

Endgame

10.6 13%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.66 · Blue 1.16

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score118.8pts

Blue projected score81.2pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 37.6
Score range: 54–146
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 151 vs event baseline 151.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

145.9Season APEX129.4

20.1Auto16.8

73.8Teleop56.3

26.8Endgame10.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	14
teleop	44	35
endgame	26	7
foul	0	0
total	95	56

Result

Final score

95 – 56

Prediction correct · off by 24.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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