Qualification · Qualification 32

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

278.21 – 299.82

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

246 – 277

Prediction correct · off by 27.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 286.3 ±15.6

10353HATAY ROBOTICS

Provisional

Season APEX 46.7Event APEX 54.66Rank 27Record 4-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

9025Mechameleons

Season APEX 132.2Event APEX 142.33Rank 4Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9232IBBTECH

Season APEX 107.4Event APEX 81.22Rank 6Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 319.5 ±14.9

9523Archers

Season APEX 45.8Event APEX 54.44Rank 22Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 76

6989KAISER

Season APEX 217.6Event APEX 219.55Rank 2Record 11-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9024Callister

Season APEX 56.1Event APEX 25.83Rank 21Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10353, 9025, 9232

/ 100 compat

Projected

278.2 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 10353, 9025, 9232

Auto

54.4 20%

Teleop

150.4 54%

Endgame

72.1 26%

Strengths

· 9025 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9523, 6989, 9024

/ 100 compat

Projected

299.8 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 9523, 6989, 9024

Auto

59.9 20%

Teleop

167.5 56%

Endgame

70.4 24%

Strengths

· 6989 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.45 · Blue 1.63

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score278.2pts

Blue projected score299.8pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -21.6
Score range: 251–327
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 523 vs event baseline 151.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

286.3Season APEX319.5

54.4Auto59.9

150.4Teleop167.5

72.1Endgame70.4

51Consistency11

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	61	12
teleop	128	175
endgame	57	90
foul	0	0
total	246	277

Result

Final score

246 – 277

Prediction correct · off by 27.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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