Qualification · Qualification 30

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

259.32 – 0.93

96%4%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

336 – 16

Prediction correct · off by 45.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 467.8 ±13.9

11141AlphaZ

Season APEX 218.1Event APEX 62.63Rank 8Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9467EsRobotik

Season APEX 36.6Event APEX 7.67Rank 16Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

7539Elev8

Season APEX 213.1Event APEX 189.02Rank 1Record 11-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 95.5 ±15

11154XR-Boot

Season APEX 37.9Event APEX 14.1Rank 20Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

9473CYGNUS ROBOTICS

Season APEX 23.1Event APEX -1.26Rank 25Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 80

9583Lavender Robotics

Season APEX 34.5Event APEX -11.91Rank 28Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11141, 9467, 7539

/ 100 compat

Projected

259.3 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 11141, 9467, 7539

Auto

51.8 20%

Teleop

136.0 52%

Endgame

76.0 29%

Strengths

· 7539 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11154, 9473, 9583

/ 100 compat

Projected

0.9 pts

~0.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 11154, 9473, 9583

Auto

14.1 0%

Teleop

-15.8 100%

Endgame

-8.3 83%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.46 · Blue 0.42

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score259.3pts

Blue projected score0.9pts

Red win probability96%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 258.4
Score range: -26–286
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 352 vs event baseline 149.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

467.8Season APEX95.5

51.8Auto14.1

136Teleop-15.8

76Endgame-8.3

4Consistency121

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	86	7
teleop	213	2
endgame	37	7
foul	0	0
total	336	16

Result

Final score

336 – 16

Prediction correct · off by 45.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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