Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

156.59 – 39.14

81%19%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

177 – 18

Prediction correct · off by 20.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 256.6 ±16.7

9021uSELESScASE

Season APEX 71.4Event APEX 53.3Rank 15Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 77

7594Nautilus

Season APEX 143.3Event APEX 81.97Rank 7Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6025Adroit Androids

Season APEX 41.9Event APEX 21.32Rank 9Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 140 ±17.5

8500ROBEST Robotics

Season APEX 34.4Event APEX 0.67Rank 13Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

10470Sancar Robotics

Season APEX 49.5Event APEX 19.98Rank 11Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

9024Callister

Season APEX 56.1Event APEX 18.49Rank 21Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9021, 7594, 6025

/ 100 compat

Projected

156.6 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 9021, 7594, 6025

Auto

23.7 15%

Teleop

93.0 61%

Endgame

36.9 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8500, 10470, 9024

/ 100 compat

Projected

39.1 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 8500, 10470, 9024

Auto

13.1 36%

Teleop

17.8 48%

Endgame

5.9 16%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.2 · Blue 0.84

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score156.6pts

Blue projected score39.1pts

Red win probability81%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 117.5
Score range: 8–188
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 195 vs event baseline 169.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

256.6Season APEX140

23.7Auto13.1

93Teleop17.8

36.9Endgame5.9

28Consistency5

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	9
teleop	115	4
endgame	45	0
foul	0	5
total	177	18

Result

Final score

177 – 18

Prediction correct · off by 20.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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