Qualification · Qualification 29

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

101.46 – 99.6

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

88 – 51

Prediction correct · off by 31 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 111.6 ±18.5

8783Apeiron

Season APEX 55.1Event APEX 55.39Rank 14Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

10548TechTonic Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX -2.1Event APEX 15.75Rank 31Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

8220Space Tigers MBA Robotics

Season APEX 58.6Event APEX 30.32Rank 10Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 161.4 ±18.1

10244WOLFS ROBOTICS

Season APEX 52.7Event APEX -1.31Rank 17Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9021uSELESScASE

Season APEX 71.4Event APEX 88.24Rank 15Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 77

8777SafranTech

Provisional

Season APEX 37.3Event APEX 12.67Rank 32Record 2-9-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8783, 10548, 8220

/ 100 compat

Projected

101.5 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 8783, 10548, 8220

Auto

6.6 7%

Teleop

42.3 45%

Endgame

44.8 48%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10244, 9021, 8777

/ 100 compat

Projected

99.6 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 10244, 9021, 8777

Auto

16.9 18%

Teleop

36.7 39%

Endgame

40.1 43%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.43 · Blue 1.44

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score101.5pts

Blue projected score99.6pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 1.9
Score range: 73–128
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 139 vs event baseline 152.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

111.6Season APEX161.4

6.6Auto16.9

42.3Teleop36.7

44.8Endgame40.1

68Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	13
teleop	56	27
endgame	16	11
foul	0	0
total	88	51

Result

Final score

88 – 51

Prediction correct · off by 31 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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