Qualification · Qualification 27

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

313.83 – 27.88

97%3%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

224 – 32

Prediction correct · off by 47 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 354.9 ±14.9

7539Elev8

Season APEX 213.1Event APEX 206.09Rank 1Record 11-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9232IBBTECH

Season APEX 107.4Event APEX 99.85Rank 6Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8500ROBEST Robotics

Season APEX 34.4Event APEX 7.89Rank 13Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 84.6 ±19.1

9467EsRobotik

Season APEX 36.6Event APEX 12.93Rank 16Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

9479CREDENTIS

Provisional

Season APEX 21.4Event APEX 5.98Rank 29Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

10247RedFox

Season APEX 26.6Event APEX 8.97Rank 33Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 79

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7539, 9232, 8500

/ 100 compat

Projected

313.8 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 7539, 9232, 8500

Auto

53.1 17%

Teleop

165.3 54%

Endgame

85.5 28%

Strengths

· 7539 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9467, 9479, 10247

/ 100 compat

Projected

27.9 pts

~0.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 9467, 9479, 10247

Auto

13.8 37%

Teleop

30.3 81%

Endgame

-6.8 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.52 · Blue 0.44

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score313.8pts

Blue projected score27.9pts

Red win probability97%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 286
Score range: 1–341
Upset likelihood: 3%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 256 vs event baseline 148.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

354.9Season APEX84.6

53.1Auto13.8

165.3Teleop30.3

85.5Endgame-6.8

53Consistency52

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	71	13
teleop	79	5
endgame	69	14
foul	5	0
total	224	32

Result

Final score

224 – 32

Prediction correct · off by 47 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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