Qualification · Qualification 25

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

85.94 – 1.2

74%26%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

37 – 63

Prediction missed · off by 55.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 135 ±16.3

9074Roboant

Season APEX 51Event APEX 74.35Rank 26Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 77

9583Lavender Robotics

Season APEX 34.5Event APEX -0.22Rank 28Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10470Sancar Robotics

Season APEX 49.5Event APEX 11.81Rank 11Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 121.4 ±15.8

8220Space Tigers MBA Robotics

Season APEX 58.6Event APEX 17.5Rank 10Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

9473CYGNUS ROBOTICS

Season APEX 23.1Event APEX -14.84Rank 25Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 80

10043Conscius Robotics

Season APEX 39.7Event APEX -1.46Rank 18Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9074, 9583, 10470

/ 100 compat

Projected

85.9 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 9074, 9583, 10470

Auto

14.7 18%

Teleop

47.8 59%

Endgame

18.9 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8220, 9473, 10043

/ 100 compat

Projected

1.2 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 8220, 9473, 10043

Auto

-14.6 100%

Teleop

-5.7 63%

Endgame

11.2 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.91 · Blue 0.9

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score85.9pts

Blue projected score1.2pts

Red win probability74%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 84.7
Score range: -27–114
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 100 vs event baseline 155.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

135Season APEX121.4

14.7Auto-14.6

47.8Teleop-5.7

18.9Endgame11.2

59Consistency66

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	15
teleop	15	11
endgame	6	22
foul	5	15
total	37	63

Result

Final score

37 – 63

Prediction missed · off by 55.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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