Qualification · Qualification 23

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

176.02 – 209.65

40%60%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

136 – 209

Prediction correct · off by 20.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 414.1 ±11.7

11141AlphaZ

Season APEX 218.1Event APEX 72.45Rank 8Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10244WOLFS ROBOTICS

Season APEX 52.7Event APEX 6.6Rank 17Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7594Nautilus

Season APEX 143.3Event APEX 96.97Rank 7Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 300.6 ±16.7

9029Team NF

Season APEX 203.7Event APEX 156.78Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10216QUANTUMBEE

Provisional

Season APEX 41.8Event APEX 3.12Rank 30Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

8783Apeiron

Season APEX 55.1Event APEX 49.75Rank 14Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11141, 10244, 7594

/ 100 compat

Projected

176 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 11141, 10244, 7594

Auto

34.6 19%

Teleop

105.1 59%

Endgame

39.8 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9029, 10216, 8783

/ 100 compat

Projected

209.7 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 9029, 10216, 8783

Auto

45.7 22%

Teleop

129.5 62%

Endgame

32.9 16%

Strengths

· 9029 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.39 · Blue 1.74

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score176pts

Blue projected score209.7pts

Red win probability40%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -33.6
Score range: 149–237
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 345 vs event baseline 152.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

414.1Season APEX300.6

34.6Auto45.7

105.1Teleop129.5

39.8Endgame32.9

20Consistency52

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	26
teleop	70	100
endgame	22	78
foul	15	5
total	136	209

Result

Final score

136 – 209

Prediction correct · off by 20.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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