Qualification · Qualification 20

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

294.2 – 70.4

94%6%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

438 – 34

Prediction correct · off by 90.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 459.2 ±13.1

11154XR-Boot

Season APEX 37.9Event APEX -8.19Rank 20Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

9029Team NF

Season APEX 203.7Event APEX 141.09Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6989KAISER

Season APEX 217.6Event APEX 161.3Rank 2Record 11-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 112.5 ±19.6

9074Roboant

Season APEX 51Event APEX 61.32Rank 26Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 77

10216QUANTUMBEE

Provisional

Season APEX 41.8Event APEX 14.47Rank 30Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

10142ANDROMEDA

Season APEX 19.7Event APEX -5.39Rank 23Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11154, 9029, 6989

/ 100 compat

Projected

294.2 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 11154, 9029, 6989

Auto

57.1 19%

Teleop

176.0 59%

Endgame

63.2 21%

Strengths

· 6989 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9074, 10216, 10142

/ 100 compat

Projected

70.4 pts

~0.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 9074, 10216, 10142

Auto

10.3 17%

Teleop

36.9 62%

Endgame

12.6 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.41 · Blue 0.58

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score294.2pts

Blue projected score70.4pts

Red win probability94%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 223.8
Score range: 44–320
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 472 vs event baseline 146.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

459.2Season APEX112.5

57.1Auto10.3

176Teleop36.9

63.2Endgame12.6

132Consistency28

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	77	0
teleop	277	27
endgame	84	7
foul	0	0
total	438	34

Result

Final score

438 – 34

Prediction correct · off by 90.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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