Qualification · Qualification 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

49.55 – 274.67

6%94%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

31 – 190

Prediction correct · off by 51.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 123.7 ±18.4

8777SafranTech

Provisional

Season APEX 37.3Event APEX 16.15Rank 32Record 2-9-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

10043Conscius Robotics

Season APEX 39.7Event APEX 6.44Rank 18Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10353HATAY ROBOTICS

Provisional

Season APEX 46.7Event APEX 26.96Rank 27Record 4-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 484 ±13.9

10142ANDROMEDA

Season APEX 19.7Event APEX 11.92Rank 23Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 76

11141AlphaZ

Season APEX 218.1Event APEX 88.6Rank 8Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9609Paraducks

Season APEX 246.2Event APEX 174.15Rank 3Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8777, 10043, 10353

/ 100 compat

Projected

49.6 pts

~0.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 8777, 10043, 10353

Auto

17.0 41%

Teleop

19.0 45%

Endgame

5.9 14%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10142, 11141, 9609

/ 100 compat

Projected

274.7 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 10142, 11141, 9609

Auto

59.6 22%

Teleop

149.2 55%

Endgame

61.9 23%

Strengths

· 9609 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.51 · Blue 2.46

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score49.6pts

Blue projected score274.7pts

Red win probability6%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -225.1
Score range: 19–306
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 221 vs event baseline 169.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

123.7Season APEX484

17Auto59.6

19Teleop149.2

5.9Endgame61.9

8Consistency18

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	7	40
teleop	16	110
endgame	8	40
foul	0	0
total	31	190

Result

Final score

31 – 190

Prediction correct · off by 51.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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