Qualification · Qualification 19

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

41.11 – 62.78

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

84 – 27

Prediction missed · off by 39.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 239.1 ±16.7

9473CYGNUS ROBOTICS

Season APEX 23.1Event APEX -11.7Rank 25Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 80

11141AlphaZ

Season APEX 218.1Event APEX 59.92Rank 8Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10548TechTonic Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX -2.1Event APEX -7.11Rank 31Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 110.6 ±17.5

9502Idigna

Season APEX 36.5Event APEX 31.2Rank 12Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

10244WOLFS ROBOTICS

Season APEX 52.7Event APEX 24.15Rank 17Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9479CREDENTIS

Provisional

Season APEX 21.4Event APEX 7.43Rank 29Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9473, 11141, 10548

/ 100 compat

Projected

41.1 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 9473, 11141, 10548

Auto

12.5 30%

Teleop

24.0 58%

Endgame

5.2 12%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9502, 10244, 9479

/ 100 compat

Projected

62.8 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 9502, 10244, 9479

Auto

19.3 29%

Teleop

22.7 34%

Endgame

24.8 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.24 · Blue 1.6

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score41.1pts

Blue projected score62.8pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -21.7
Score range: 14–90
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 111 vs event baseline 151.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

239.1Season APEX110.6

12.5Auto19.3

24Teleop22.7

5.2Endgame24.8

83Consistency90

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	16
teleop	46	1
endgame	26	10
foul	0	0
total	84	27

Result

Final score

84 – 27

Prediction missed · off by 39.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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