Qualification · Qualification 18

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

253.56 – 222.27

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

178 – 233

Prediction missed · off by 43.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 227 ±13.6

8783Apeiron

Season APEX 55.1Event APEX 60.31Rank 14Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

10043Conscius Robotics

Season APEX 39.7Event APEX 14.17Rank 18Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9025Mechameleons

Season APEX 132.2Event APEX 179.08Rank 4Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 309.3 ±14.1

8220Space Tigers MBA Robotics

Season APEX 58.6Event APEX 30.78Rank 10Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

9232IBBTECH

Season APEX 107.4Event APEX 91.53Rank 6Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7594Nautilus

Season APEX 143.3Event APEX 99.96Rank 7Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8783, 10043, 9025

/ 100 compat

Projected

253.6 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 8783, 10043, 9025

Auto

37.6 15%

Teleop

139.8 56%

Endgame

70.6 28%

Strengths

· 9025 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8220, 9232, 7594

/ 100 compat

Projected

222.3 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 8220, 9232, 7594

Auto

26.1 12%

Teleop

136.5 61%

Endgame

60.0 27%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.73 · Blue 1.4

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score253.6pts

Blue projected score222.3pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 31.3
Score range: 195–281
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 411 vs event baseline 148.3.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

227Season APEX309.3

37.6Auto26.1

139.8Teleop136.5

70.6Endgame60

6Consistency106

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	41	29
teleop	71	133
endgame	51	66
foul	15	5
total	178	233

Result

Final score

178 – 233

Prediction missed · off by 43.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.