Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

24.9 – 189.22

11%89%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

24 – 230

Prediction correct · off by 20.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 132.4 ±15.3

9024Callister

Season APEX 56.1Event APEX 11.74Rank 21Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10216QUANTUMBEE

Provisional

Season APEX 41.8Event APEX 16.49Rank 30Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

9583Lavender Robotics

Season APEX 34.5Event APEX -3.33Rank 28Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 292.3 ±17.3

8777SafranTech

Provisional

Season APEX 37.3Event APEX 33.6Rank 32Record 2-9-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

7539Elev8

Season APEX 213.1Event APEX 152.48Rank 1Record 11-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6025Adroit Androids

Season APEX 41.9Event APEX 3.14Rank 9Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9024, 10216, 9583

/ 100 compat

Projected

24.9 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 9024, 10216, 9583

Auto

7.6 32%

Teleop

10.2 43%

Endgame

6.0 25%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8777, 7539, 6025

/ 100 compat

Projected

189.2 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 8777, 7539, 6025

Auto

30.2 16%

Teleop

94.6 51%

Endgame

61.8 33%

Strengths

· 7539 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.67 · Blue 2.28

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score24.9pts

Blue projected score189.2pts

Red win probability11%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -164.3
Score range: -2–216
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 254 vs event baseline 149.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

132.4Season APEX292.3

7.6Auto30.2

10.2Teleop94.6

6Endgame61.8

90Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	47
teleop	5	106
endgame	7	77
foul	0	0
total	24	230

Result

Final score

24 – 230

Prediction correct · off by 20.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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