Qualification · Qualification 16

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

89.35 – 57.96

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

65 – 36

Prediction correct · off by 23.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 131.9 ±19.1

10470Sancar Robotics

Season APEX 49.5Event APEX 27.34Rank 11Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

9467EsRobotik

Season APEX 36.6Event APEX 27.4Rank 16Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

9523Archers

Season APEX 45.8Event APEX 34.61Rank 22Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 163.1 ±15.1

10502HARPIA ROBOTICS

Season APEX 65.7Event APEX 58Rank 19Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7672SCORPIONS ROBOTICS

Season APEX 59.5Event APEX 7.02Rank 24Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11154XR-Boot

Season APEX 37.9Event APEX -7.06Rank 20Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10470, 9467, 9523

/ 100 compat

Projected

89.4 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 10470, 9467, 9523

Auto

26.6 30%

Teleop

39.8 44%

Endgame

23.2 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10502, 7672, 11154

/ 100 compat

Projected

58 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 10502, 7672, 11154

Auto

30.3 53%

Teleop

22.7 40%

Endgame

3.8 7%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.62 · Blue 1.25

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score89.4pts

Blue projected score58pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 31.4
Score range: 30–117
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 101 vs event baseline 156.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

131.9Season APEX163.1

26.6Auto30.3

39.8Teleop22.7

23.2Endgame3.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	13
teleop	42	0
endgame	8	23
foul	0	0
total	65	36

Result

Final score

65 – 36

Prediction correct · off by 23.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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