Qualification · Qualification 15

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

119.48 – 146.79

42%58%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

33 – 291

Prediction correct · off by 115.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 77.2 ±17.5

10244WOLFS ROBOTICS

Season APEX 52.7Event APEX 41.77Rank 17Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10247RedFox

Season APEX 26.6Event APEX 62.21Rank 33Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 79

10548TechTonic Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX -2.1Event APEX 15.5Rank 31Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 429.2 ±11

7594Nautilus

Season APEX 143.3Event APEX 66.56Rank 7Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10043Conscius Robotics

Season APEX 39.7Event APEX -23.41Rank 18Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9609Paraducks

Season APEX 246.2Event APEX 103.64Rank 3Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10244, 10247, 10548

/ 100 compat

Projected

119.5 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 10244, 10247, 10548

Auto

33.1 29%

Teleop

57.9 51%

Endgame

22.0 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7594, 10043, 9609

/ 100 compat

Projected

146.8 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 7594, 10043, 9609

Auto

36.4 25%

Teleop

84.8 58%

Endgame

25.6 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.19 · Blue 1.73

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score119.5pts

Blue projected score146.8pts

Red win probability42%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -27.3
Score range: 91–175
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 324 vs event baseline 155.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

77.2Season APEX429.2

33.1Auto36.4

57.9Teleop84.8

22Endgame25.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	51
teleop	10	173
endgame	14	67
foul	0	0
total	33	291

Result

Final score

33 – 291

Prediction correct · off by 115.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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