Qualification · Qualification 14

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

0 – 120.41

13%87%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

54 – 217

Prediction correct · off by 75.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 115.7 ±16.2

9024Callister

Season APEX 56.1Event APEX -17.58Rank 21Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9502Idigna

Season APEX 36.5Event APEX 13.3Rank 12Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

9473CYGNUS ROBOTICS

Season APEX 23.1Event APEX -29.83Rank 25Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 80

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 318.1 ±16

6989KAISER

Season APEX 217.6Event APEX 119.73Rank 2Record 11-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8220Space Tigers MBA Robotics

Season APEX 58.6Event APEX 6.92Rank 10Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

6025Adroit Androids

Season APEX 41.9Event APEX -6.24Rank 9Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9024, 9502, 9473

/ 100 compat

Projected

-34.1 pts

~0.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 9024, 9502, 9473

Auto

-1.2 3%

Teleop

-30.5 73%

Endgame

-10.2 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6989, 8220, 6025

/ 100 compat

Projected

120.4 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 6989, 8220, 6025

Auto

14.0 11%

Teleop

71.1 58%

Endgame

36.7 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.64 · Blue 2.3

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score-34.1pts

Blue projected score120.4pts

Red win probability13%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -120.4
Score range: -28–148
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 271 vs event baseline 157.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

115.7Season APEX318.1

-1.2Auto14

-30.5Teleop71.1

-10.2Endgame36.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	19
teleop	22	128
endgame	22	70
foul	0	0
total	54	217

Result

Final score

54 – 217

Prediction correct · off by 75.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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