Qualification · Qualification 13

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

140.83 – 13.47

83%17%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

166 – 241

Prediction missed · off by 126.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 182.2 ±16.9

10142ANDROMEDA

Season APEX 19.7Event APEX 17.73Rank 23Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 76

8783Apeiron

Season APEX 55.1Event APEX 57.39Rank 14Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

9232IBBTECH

Season APEX 107.4Event APEX 65.71Rank 6Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 284.8 ±17.3

10353HATAY ROBOTICS

Provisional

Season APEX 46.7Event APEX -19.4Rank 27Record 4-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

8500ROBEST Robotics

Season APEX 34.4Event APEX -37.35Rank 13Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

9029Team NF

Season APEX 203.7Event APEX 70.22Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10142, 8783, 9232

/ 100 compat

Projected

140.8 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 10142, 8783, 9232

Auto

32.3 23%

Teleop

61.9 45%

Endgame

43.7 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10353, 8500, 9029

/ 100 compat

Projected

13.5 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 10353, 8500, 9029

Auto

8.6 100%

Teleop

5.0 77%

Endgame

-7.1 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.21 · Blue 0.82

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score140.8pts

Blue projected score13.5pts

Red win probability83%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 127.4
Score range: -15–169
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 407 vs event baseline 153.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

182.2Season APEX284.8

32.3Auto8.6

61.9Teleop5

43.7Endgame-7.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	52
teleop	92	152
endgame	44	37
foul	15	0
total	166	241

Result

Final score

166 – 241

Prediction missed · off by 126.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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