Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

125.94 – 207.4

27%73%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

103 – 339

Prediction correct · off by 77.3 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 127.3 ±17

9583Lavender Robotics

Season APEX 34.5Event APEX -4.33Rank 28Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9021uSELESScASE

Season APEX 71.4Event APEX 113.16Rank 15Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 77

9479CREDENTIS

Provisional

Season APEX 21.4Event APEX 17.11Rank 29Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 401.3 ±13.9

11141AlphaZ

Season APEX 218.1Event APEX 34.17Rank 8Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9025Mechameleons

Season APEX 132.2Event APEX 124.5Rank 4Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9074Roboant

Season APEX 51Event APEX 48.73Rank 26Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 77

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9583, 9021, 9479

/ 100 compat

Projected

125.9 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 9583, 9021, 9479

Auto

12.2 10%

Teleop

70.5 55%

Endgame

45.5 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11141, 9025, 9074

/ 100 compat

Projected

207.4 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 11141, 9025, 9074

Auto

36.9 18%

Teleop

101.2 50%

Endgame

64.0 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.99 · Blue 2.05

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score125.9pts

Blue projected score207.4pts

Red win probability27%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -81.5
Score range: 99–234
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 442 vs event baseline 147.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

127.3Season APEX401.3

12.2Auto36.9

70.5Teleop101.2

45.5Endgame64

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	62
teleop	51	190
endgame	34	87
foul	0	0
total	103	339

Result

Final score

103 – 339

Prediction correct · off by 77.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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