Qualification · Qualification 11

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

59.64 – 84.77

42%58%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

271 – 33

Prediction missed · off by 131.6 points

Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 304.4 ±17.3

10470Sancar Robotics

Season APEX 49.5Event APEX -6.79Rank 11Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

8777SafranTech

Provisional

Season APEX 37.3Event APEX 14.15Rank 32Record 2-9-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

6989KAISER

Season APEX 217.6Event APEX 52.28Rank 2Record 11-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 74.2 ±17.7

9467EsRobotik

Season APEX 36.6Event APEX 52.28Rank 16Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

10548TechTonic Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX -2.1Event APEX 18.34Rank 31Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

10043Conscius Robotics

Season APEX 39.7Event APEX 14.15Rank 18Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10470, 8777, 6989

/ 100 compat

Projected

59.6 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 10470, 8777, 6989

Auto

17.6 28%

Teleop

32.0 51%

Endgame

13.3 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9467, 10548, 10043

/ 100 compat

Projected

84.8 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 9467, 10548, 10043

Auto

26.9 31%

Teleop

43.2 50%

Endgame

16.1 19%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.33 · Blue 1.51

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score59.6pts

Blue projected score84.8pts

Red win probability42%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -25.1
Score range: 34–111
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 304 vs event baseline 147.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

304.4Season APEX74.2

17.6Auto26.9

32Teleop43.2

13.3Endgame16.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	57	7
teleop	135	22
endgame	79	4
foul	0	0
total	271	33

Result

Final score

271 – 33

Prediction missed · off by 131.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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