Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

107.48 – 168.88

32%68%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

59 – 339

Prediction correct · off by 109.3 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 123.1 ±17.3

11154XR-Boot

Season APEX 37.9Event APEX 7.84Rank 20Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

8220Space Tigers MBA Robotics

Season APEX 58.6Event APEX 32.73Rank 10Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

10247RedFox

Season APEX 26.6Event APEX 66.91Rank 33Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 79

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 422.1 ±11.7

10502HARPIA ROBOTICS

Season APEX 65.7Event APEX 23.08Rank 19Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7594Nautilus

Season APEX 143.3Event APEX 21.25Rank 7Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7539Elev8

Season APEX 213.1Event APEX 124.55Rank 1Record 11-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11154, 8220, 10247

/ 100 compat

Projected

107.5 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 11154, 8220, 10247

Auto

28.4 26%

Teleop

55.1 51%

Endgame

24.3 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10502, 7594, 7539

/ 100 compat

Projected

168.9 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 10502, 7594, 7539

Auto

22.2 13%

Teleop

95.2 57%

Endgame

50.3 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.02 · Blue 1.9

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score107.5pts

Blue projected score168.9pts

Red win probability32%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -61.4
Score range: 82–194
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 398 vs event baseline 141.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

123.1Season APEX422.1

28.4Auto22.2

55.1Teleop95.2

24.3Endgame50.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	1	71
teleop	33	176
endgame	20	92
foul	5	0
total	59	339

Result

Final score

59 – 339

Prediction correct · off by 109.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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