Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

138.07 – 172.64

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

150 – 152

Prediction correct · off by 16.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 185.7 ±17.5

9232IBBTECH

Season APEX 107.4Event APEX 104.14Rank 6Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9502Idigna

Season APEX 36.5Event APEX 25.92Rank 12Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

10216QUANTUMBEE

Provisional

Season APEX 41.8Event APEX 8.01Rank 30Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 168 ±16.7

11154XR-Boot

Season APEX 37.9Event APEX 23.85Rank 20Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

10548TechTonic Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX -2.1Event APEX -19.29Rank 31Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

9025Mechameleons

Season APEX 132.2Event APEX 168.08Rank 4Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9232, 9502, 10216

/ 100 compat

Projected

138.1 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 9232, 9502, 10216

Auto

28.7 22%

Teleop

61.8 47%

Endgame

42.4 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11154, 10548, 9025

/ 100 compat

Projected

172.6 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 11154, 10548, 9025

Auto

38.9 23%

Teleop

81.6 49%

Endgame

47.4 28%

Strengths

· 9025 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.31 · Blue 1.64

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score138.1pts

Blue projected score172.6pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -34.6
Score range: 107–204
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 302 vs event baseline 169.8.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

185.7Season APEX168

28.7Auto38.9

61.8Teleop81.6

42.4Endgame47.4

11Consistency45

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	39
teleop	83	73
endgame	43	40
foul	0	0
total	150	152

Result

Final score

150 – 152

Prediction correct · off by 16.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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