Final · Finals 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

370.03 – 395.27

42%58%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

228 – 458

Prediction correct · off by 102.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 515.6 ±11.7

9029Team NF

Season APEX 203.7Event APEX 136.08Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10502HARPIA ROBOTICS

Season APEX 65.7Event APEX 54.7Rank 19Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9609Paraducks

Season APEX 246.2Event APEX 179.25Rank 3Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 470.4 ±11

10043Conscius Robotics

Season APEX 39.7Event APEX 3.67Rank 18Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6989KAISER

Season APEX 217.6Event APEX 189.73Rank 2Record 11-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7539Elev8

Season APEX 213.1Event APEX 201.87Rank 1Record 11-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9029, 10502, 9609

/ 100 compat

Projected

370 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 9029, 10502, 9609

Auto

83.7 24%

Teleop

193.7 55%

Endgame

75.1 21%

Strengths

· 9609 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10043, 6989, 7539

/ 100 compat

Projected

395.3 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 10043, 6989, 7539

Auto

80.0 21%

Teleop

203.5 54%

Endgame

95.0 25%

Strengths

· 7539 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.36 · Blue 1.71

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score370pts

Blue projected score395.3pts

Red win probability42%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -25.2
Score range: 340–425
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 686 vs event baseline 167.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

515.6Season APEX470.4

83.7Auto80

193.7Teleop203.5

75.1Endgame95

0Consistency7

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	48	111
teleop	94	236
endgame	66	76
foul	20	35
total	228	458

Result

Final score

228 – 458

Prediction correct · off by 102.4 pts

Match videos

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