Final · Finals 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

383.12 – 386.4

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

273 – 462

Prediction correct · off by 92.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 515.6 ±11.7

9029Team NF

Season APEX 203.7Event APEX 140.51Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10502HARPIA ROBOTICS

Season APEX 65.7Event APEX 58.91Rank 19Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9609Paraducks

Season APEX 246.2Event APEX 183.7Rank 3Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 470.4 ±11

10043Conscius Robotics

Season APEX 39.7Event APEX 0.23Rank 18Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6989KAISER

Season APEX 217.6Event APEX 186.6Rank 2Record 11-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7539Elev8

Season APEX 213.1Event APEX 199.57Rank 1Record 11-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9029, 10502, 9609

/ 100 compat

Projected

383.1 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 9029, 10502, 9609

Auto

82.7 23%

Teleop

202.3 56%

Endgame

78.2 22%

Strengths

· 9609 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10043, 6989, 7539

/ 100 compat

Projected

386.4 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 10043, 6989, 7539

Auto

75.4 20%

Teleop

199.5 54%

Endgame

94.6 26%

Strengths

· 7539 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.49 · Blue 1.58

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score383.1pts

Blue projected score386.4pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -3.3
Score range: 353–416
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 735 vs event baseline 164.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

515.6Season APEX470.4

82.7Auto75.4

202.3Teleop199.5

78.2Endgame94.6

0Consistency17

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	93	118
teleop	129	232
endgame	51	97
foul	0	15
total	273	462

Result

Final score

273 – 462

Prediction correct · off by 92.9 pts

Match videos

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