Final · Finals 1
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
373.35 – 394.86
43%57%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
445 – 330
Prediction missed · off by 68.3 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 515.6 ±11.7
Season APEX 203.7Event APEX 137.23Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 65.7Event APEX 55.73Rank 19Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 246.2Event APEX 180.39Rank 3Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 470.4 ±11
Season APEX 39.7Event APEX 3.44Rank 18Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 217.6Event APEX 189.53Rank 2Record 11-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 213.1Event APEX 201.89Rank 1Record 11-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 9029, 10502, 9609
82
/ 100 compatProjected
373.3 pts
~1.4 RP (regional)
Teams: 9029, 10502, 9609
Auto
79.6 22%
Teleop
202.4 57%
Endgame
75.4 21%
Strengths
- · 9609 anchors offense
- · Well-balanced across phases
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 47%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 10043, 6989, 7539
82
/ 100 compatProjected
394.9 pts
~1.7 RP (regional)
Teams: 10043, 6989, 7539
Auto
74.6 20%
Teleop
207.8 55%
Endgame
93.0 25%
Strengths
- · 7539 anchors offense
- · Well-balanced across phases
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 47%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.38 · Blue 1.69
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score373.3pts
Blue projected score394.9pts
Red win probability43%
Event bonus sample154alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 47%, blue 50%
Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -21.5
- Score range
- 344–424
- Upset likelihood
- 43%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
515.6Season APEX470.4
79.6Auto74.6
202.4Teleop207.8
75.4Endgame93
0Consistency7
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 104 | 83 |
| teleop | 198 | 140 |
| endgame | 98 | 107 |
| foul | 45 | 0 |
| total | 445 | 330 |
Result
Final score
445 – 330
Prediction missed · off by 68.3 pts
Match videos
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