Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

31.8 – 117.75

26%74%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

24 – 122

Prediction correct · off by 6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 105.1 ±14.5

9583Lavender Robotics

Season APEX 34.5Event APEX 23.61Rank 12Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10940AVIATRONIX

Season APEX 18.7Event APEX 3.71Rank 30Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 76

9247SainTech Robotics

Season APEX 51.9Event APEX 4.48Rank 19Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 95

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 228.9 ±15.7

8056Laissez Faire

Season APEX 67.5Event APEX 46.53Rank 9Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8863ANATOLIAN DEAF ETERNALS ROBOTICS

Season APEX 40.2Event APEX 38.2Rank 22Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 82

6399Tinspiratio

Season APEX 121.2Event APEX 33.02Rank 20Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9583, 10940, 9247

/ 100 compat

Projected

31.8 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 9583, 10940, 9247

Auto

11.8 50%

Teleop

12.5 53%

Endgame

-0.9 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8056, 8863, 6399

/ 100 compat

Projected

117.8 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 8056, 8863, 6399

Auto

18.0 17%

Teleop

49.8 47%

Endgame

39.0 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.9 · Blue 1.86

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score31.8pts

Blue projected score117.8pts

Red win probability26%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -85.9
Score range: 7–143
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 146 vs event baseline 139.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

105.1Season APEX228.9

11.8Auto18

12.5Teleop49.8

-0.9Endgame39

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	31
teleop	3	67
endgame	10	9
foul	0	15
total	24	122

Result

Final score

24 – 122

Prediction correct · off by 6 pts

Match videos

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