Playoff · Playoff Match 8 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

321.46 – 276.44

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

139 – 140

Prediction missed · off by 159.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 349.7 ±13.6

8561Cartesian Robotics

Season APEX 31.1Event APEX 6.96Rank 24Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 79

8079River Robotics Team

Season APEX 164.6Event APEX 134.76Rank 3Record 10-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6431NoktaParantez

Season APEX 154Event APEX 179.74Rank 5Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 451.3 ±10.4

10396Mostra

Season APEX 127.8Event APEX 89.72Rank 8Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4191IMC

Season APEX 105.4Event APEX 14.64Rank 31Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11141AlphaZ

Season APEX 218.1Event APEX 172.08Rank 4Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8561, 8079, 6431

/ 100 compat

Projected

321.5 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 8561, 8079, 6431

Auto

44.3 16%

Teleop

169.6 60%

Endgame

68.4 24%

Strengths

· 6431 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10396, 4191, 11141

/ 100 compat

Projected

276.4 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 10396, 4191, 11141

Auto

49.4 18%

Teleop

161.7 59%

Endgame

64.8 23%

Strengths

· 11141 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.88 · Blue 1.23

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score321.5pts

Blue projected score276.4pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 45
Score range: 251–346
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Playoff

Combined score 279 vs event baseline 139.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

349.7Season APEX451.3

44.3Auto49.4

169.6Teleop161.7

68.4Endgame64.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	35	72
teleop	48	52
endgame	56	1
foul	0	15
total	139	140

Result

Final score

139 – 140

Prediction missed · off by 159.5 pts

Match videos

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