Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

69.65 – 116.78

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

80 – 109

Prediction correct · off by 9.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 125.3 ±17.5

11098MATRIX

Season APEX 32.2Event APEX 14.22Rank 13Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

8557ConquEra

Season APEX 62.6Event APEX 38.69Rank 15Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10246ISTAF Team Infinitech

Season APEX 30.5Event APEX 16.74Rank 11Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 77

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 228.9 ±15.7

8056Laissez Faire

Season APEX 67.5Event APEX 47.85Rank 9Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8863ANATOLIAN DEAF ETERNALS ROBOTICS

Season APEX 40.2Event APEX 37.12Rank 22Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 82

6399Tinspiratio

Season APEX 121.2Event APEX 31.81Rank 20Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11098, 8557, 10246

/ 100 compat

Projected

69.6 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 11098, 8557, 10246

Auto

17.2 30%

Teleop

27.5 48%

Endgame

12.8 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8056, 8863, 6399

/ 100 compat

Projected

116.8 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 8056, 8863, 6399

Auto

16.2 15%

Teleop

50.2 46%

Endgame

43.7 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.09 · Blue 1.65

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score69.6pts

Blue projected score116.8pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -47.1
Score range: 45–142
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 189 vs event baseline 140.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

125.3Season APEX228.9

17.2Auto16.2

27.5Teleop50.2

12.8Endgame43.7

8Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	28
teleop	33	39
endgame	14	12
foul	15	30
total	80	109

Result

Final score

80 – 109

Prediction correct · off by 9.1 pts

Match videos

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