Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

316.72 – 70.51

96%4%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

369 – 47

Prediction correct · off by 37.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 502.9 ±11

9609Paraducks

Season APEX 246.2Event APEX 180.08Rank 1Record 11-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11300ZENITH

Season APEX 43.6Event APEX -5.19Rank 17Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7539Elev8

Season APEX 213.1Event APEX 141.83Rank 2Record 11-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 97.3 ±19.1

6430Kalsedon

Season APEX 14.7Event APEX 10.23Rank 28Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 77

6874Mediterra

Season APEX 58.9Event APEX 31.09Rank 7Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 77

8828EAL Robotics

Season APEX 23.7Event APEX 29.19Rank 21Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 77

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9609, 11300, 7539

/ 100 compat

Projected

316.7 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 9609, 11300, 7539

Auto

86.9 22%

Teleop

202.6 51%

Endgame

111.4 28%

Strengths

· 9609 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6430, 6874, 8828

/ 100 compat

Projected

70.5 pts

~0.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 6430, 6874, 8828

Auto

17.2 26%

Teleop

35.3 53%

Endgame

13.9 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.46 · Blue 0.52

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score316.7pts

Blue projected score70.5pts

Red win probability96%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 246.2
Score range: 46–342
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 416 vs event baseline 139.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

502.9Season APEX97.3

86.9Auto17.2

202.6Teleop35.3

111.4Endgame13.9

0Consistency16

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	121	20
teleop	171	17
endgame	77	10
foul	0	0
total	369	47

Result

Final score

369 – 47

Prediction correct · off by 37.9 pts

Match videos

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