Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

156.35 – 83.37

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

199 – 35

Prediction correct · off by 45.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 346.6 ±11.2

7594Nautilus

Season APEX 143.3Event APEX 67.99Rank 10Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10542EAGLE WARRIORS

Season APEX 55.1Event APEX 31.21Rank 26Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5665FENERBAHÇE DOGUS SPARC

Season APEX 148.2Event APEX 57.15Rank 6Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 97.3 ±19.1

6430Kalsedon

Season APEX 14.7Event APEX 14.62Rank 28Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 77

8828EAL Robotics

Season APEX 23.7Event APEX 33.39Rank 21Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 77

6874Mediterra

Season APEX 58.9Event APEX 35.36Rank 7Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 77

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7594, 10542, 5665

/ 100 compat

Projected

156.4 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 7594, 10542, 5665

Auto

29.6 22%

Teleop

77.0 57%

Endgame

28.4 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6430, 8828, 6874

/ 100 compat

Projected

83.4 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 6430, 8828, 6874

Auto

17.1 23%

Teleop

45.4 60%

Endgame

13.2 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.82 · Blue 1

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score156.4pts

Blue projected score83.4pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 73
Score range: 58–181
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 234 vs event baseline 137.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

346.6Season APEX97.3

29.6Auto17.1

77Teleop45.4

28.4Endgame13.2

0Consistency18

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	20
teleop	107	5
endgame	10	10
foul	45	0
total	199	35

Result

Final score

199 – 35

Prediction correct · off by 45.5 pts

Match videos

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