Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

336.8 – 117.13

94%6%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

270 – 50

Prediction correct · off by 67 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 502.9 ±11

11300ZENITH

Season APEX 43.6Event APEX 0.94Rank 17Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9609Paraducks

Season APEX 246.2Event APEX 186.94Rank 1Record 11-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7539Elev8

Season APEX 213.1Event APEX 148.92Rank 2Record 11-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 170.1 ±16.9

8056Laissez Faire

Season APEX 67.5Event APEX 46.69Rank 9Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8863ANATOLIAN DEAF ETERNALS ROBOTICS

Season APEX 40.2Event APEX 38.88Rank 22Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 82

11022RISING STAR ROBOTIC TEAM

Season APEX 62.4Event APEX 31.56Rank 18Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 77

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11300, 9609, 7539

/ 100 compat

Projected

336.8 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 11300, 9609, 7539

Auto

90.0 23%

Teleop

199.8 51%

Endgame

104.8 27%

Strengths

· 9609 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8056, 8863, 11022

/ 100 compat

Projected

117.1 pts

~0.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 8056, 8863, 11022

Auto

25.7 24%

Teleop

57.4 53%

Endgame

25.5 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.43 · Blue 0.54

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score336.8pts

Blue projected score117.1pts

Red win probability94%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 219.7
Score range: 92–362
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 320 vs event baseline 140.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

502.9Season APEX170.1

90Auto25.7

199.8Teleop57.4

104.8Endgame25.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	59	23
teleop	144	5
endgame	37	7
foul	30	15
total	270	50

Result

Final score

270 – 50

Prediction correct · off by 67 pts

Match videos

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