Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

165.15 – 254.84

25%75%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

127 – 108

Prediction missed · off by 92.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 346.6 ±11.2

7594Nautilus

Season APEX 143.3Event APEX 70.56Rank 10Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10542EAGLE WARRIORS

Season APEX 55.1Event APEX 35.02Rank 26Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5665FENERBAHÇE DOGUS SPARC

Season APEX 148.2Event APEX 59.57Rank 6Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 451.3 ±10.4

10396Mostra

Season APEX 127.8Event APEX 82Rank 8Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4191IMC

Season APEX 105.4Event APEX 7.94Rank 31Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11141AlphaZ

Season APEX 218.1Event APEX 164.9Rank 4Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7594, 10542, 5665

/ 100 compat

Projected

165.2 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 7594, 10542, 5665

Auto

31.2 21%

Teleop

89.4 61%

Endgame

25.6 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10396, 4191, 11141

/ 100 compat

Projected

254.8 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 10396, 4191, 11141

Auto

54.1 22%

Teleop

143.1 57%

Endgame

53.7 21%

Strengths

· 11141 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.89 · Blue 2.01

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score165.2pts

Blue projected score254.8pts

Red win probability25%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -89.7
Score range: 140–280
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 235 vs event baseline 140.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

346.6Season APEX451.3

31.2Auto54.1

89.4Teleop143.1

25.6Endgame53.7

0Consistency2

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	14
teleop	66	64
endgame	13	30
foul	15	0
total	127	108

Result

Final score

127 – 108

Prediction missed · off by 92.5 pts

Match videos

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