Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

291.76 – 329.52

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

234 – 366

Prediction correct · off by 47.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 349.7 ±13.6

8561Cartesian Robotics

Season APEX 31.1Event APEX -2.06Rank 24Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 79

8079River Robotics Team

Season APEX 164.6Event APEX 124.76Rank 3Record 10-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6431NoktaParantez

Season APEX 154Event APEX 169.06Rank 5Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 502.9 ±11

11300ZENITH

Season APEX 43.6Event APEX -1.28Rank 17Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9609Paraducks

Season APEX 246.2Event APEX 184.36Rank 1Record 11-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7539Elev8

Season APEX 213.1Event APEX 146.44Rank 2Record 11-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8561, 8079, 6431

/ 100 compat

Projected

291.8 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 8561, 8079, 6431

Auto

42.2 16%

Teleop

150.1 58%

Endgame

67.3 26%

Strengths

· 6431 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11300, 9609, 7539

/ 100 compat

Projected

329.5 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 11300, 9609, 7539

Auto

92.8 23%

Teleop

198.9 50%

Endgame

106.1 27%

Strengths

· 9609 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.38 · Blue 1.78

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score291.8pts

Blue projected score329.5pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -37.8
Score range: 267–355
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 600 vs event baseline 138.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

349.7Season APEX502.9

42.2Auto92.8

150.1Teleop198.9

67.3Endgame106.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	71
teleop	162	200
endgame	54	95
foul	0	0
total	234	366

Result

Final score

234 – 366

Prediction correct · off by 47.1 pts

Match videos

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