Qualification · Qualification 9

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

176.08 – 21.52

87%13%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

261 – 24

Prediction correct · off by 43.7 points

Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 427.8 ±14.3

9609Paraducks

Season APEX 246.2Event APEX 126.82Rank 1Record 11-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11064ASTERIA

Provisional

Season APEX 33.4Event APEX 31.43Rank 23Record 4-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

5665FENERBAHÇE DOGUS SPARC

Season APEX 148.2Event APEX 17.83Rank 6Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 141.7 ±18.8

8557ConquEra

Season APEX 62.6Event APEX 63.11Rank 15Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10180ÇOROBOT

Provisional

Season APEX 45.5Event APEX -9.7Rank 14Record 6-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

10478NEO Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 33.6Event APEX -31.89Rank 25Record 4-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9609, 11064, 5665

/ 100 compat

Projected

176.1 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 9609, 11064, 5665

Auto

41.7 26%

Teleop

84.7 52%

Endgame

36.4 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8557, 10180, 10478

/ 100 compat

Projected

21.5 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 8557, 10180, 10478

Auto

5.3 25%

Teleop

17.4 82%

Endgame

-1.6 0%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.26 · Blue 0.65

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score176.1pts

Blue projected score21.5pts

Red win probability87%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 154.6
Score range: -5–203
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 285 vs event baseline 148.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

427.8Season APEX141.7

41.7Auto5.3

84.7Teleop17.4

36.4Endgame-1.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	101	10
teleop	89	5
endgame	71	9
foul	0	0
total	261	24

Result

Final score

261 – 24

Prediction correct · off by 43.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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