Qualification · Qualification 61

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

136.26 – 82.83

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

161 – 48

Prediction correct · off by 29.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 199.5 ±17.7

8079River Robotics Team

Season APEX 164.6Event APEX 125.6Rank 3Record 10-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10472Bilkent Next

Provisional

Season APEX 16.6Event APEX 7.67Rank 29Record 3-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

8780TED ROBOTICS

Season APEX 18.3Event APEX 2.99Rank 27Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 208 ±16

4191IMC

Season APEX 105.4Event APEX 14.59Rank 31Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11022RISING STAR ROBOTIC TEAM

Season APEX 62.4Event APEX 30.43Rank 18Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 77

8863ANATOLIAN DEAF ETERNALS ROBOTICS

Season APEX 40.2Event APEX 37.81Rank 22Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 82

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8079, 10472, 8780

/ 100 compat

Projected

136.3 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 8079, 10472, 8780

Auto

30.8 23%

Teleop

73.4 55%

Endgame

29.0 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4191, 11022, 8863

/ 100 compat

Projected

82.8 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 4191, 11022, 8863

Auto

7.8 9%

Teleop

48.9 56%

Endgame

30.8 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.82 · Blue 1.04

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score136.3pts

Blue projected score82.8pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 53.4
Score range: 58–161
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 209 vs event baseline 140.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

199.5Season APEX208

30.8Auto7.8

73.4Teleop48.9

29Endgame30.8

22Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	20
teleop	70	19
endgame	41	9
foul	20	0
total	161	48

Result

Final score

161 – 48

Prediction correct · off by 29.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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