Qualification · Qualification 60

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

164.11 – 116.8

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

216 – 49

Prediction correct · off by 59.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 294.7 ±16.7

8561Cartesian Robotics

Season APEX 31.1Event APEX 2.56Rank 24Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 79

11141AlphaZ

Season APEX 218.1Event APEX 160.55Rank 4Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10180ÇOROBOT

Provisional

Season APEX 45.5Event APEX 1Rank 14Record 6-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 254.1 ±14.9

9247SainTech Robotics

Season APEX 51.9Event APEX 10.05Rank 19Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 95

7594Nautilus

Season APEX 143.3Event APEX 67.88Rank 10Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6874Mediterra

Season APEX 58.9Event APEX 38.87Rank 7Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 77

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8561, 11141, 10180

/ 100 compat

Projected

164.1 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 8561, 11141, 10180

Auto

25.3 15%

Teleop

93.4 55%

Endgame

51.1 30%

Strengths

· 11141 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9247, 7594, 6874

/ 100 compat

Projected

116.8 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 9247, 7594, 6874

Auto

16.6 14%

Teleop

68.2 58%

Endgame

31.8 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.79 · Blue 1.12

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score164.1pts

Blue projected score116.8pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 47.3
Score range: 92–189
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 265 vs event baseline 140.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

294.7Season APEX254.1

25.3Auto16.6

93.4Teleop68.2

51.1Endgame31.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	45	18
teleop	97	31
endgame	54	0
foul	20	0
total	216	49

Result

Final score

216 – 49

Prediction correct · off by 59.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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