Qualification · Qualification 59

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

101.58 – 61.22

62%38%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

136 – 75

Prediction correct · off by 24.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 235.7 ±15.3

11099Capella Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 20Event APEX 16.17Rank 33Record 2-9-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

8056Laissez Faire

Season APEX 67.5Event APEX 36.37Rank 9Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5665FENERBAHÇE DOGUS SPARC

Season APEX 148.2Event APEX 49.04Rank 6Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 63.1 ±19.6

8828EAL Robotics

Season APEX 23.7Event APEX 29.63Rank 21Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 77

11257Hi-Sac

Provisional

Season APEX 24.7Event APEX 12.71Rank 32Record 2-9-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

6430Kalsedon

Season APEX 14.7Event APEX 18.88Rank 28Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 77

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11099, 8056, 5665

/ 100 compat

Projected

101.6 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 11099, 8056, 5665

Auto

33.9 34%

Teleop

43.3 43%

Endgame

22.9 23%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8828, 11257, 6430

/ 100 compat

Projected

61.2 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 8828, 11257, 6430

Auto

17.6 37%

Teleop

27.6 58%

Endgame

2.2 5%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.64 · Blue 1.15

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score101.6pts

Blue projected score61.2pts

Red win probability62%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 40.4
Score range: 36–127
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 211 vs event baseline 141.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

235.7Season APEX63.1

33.9Auto17.6

43.3Teleop27.6

22.9Endgame2.2

52Consistency19

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	41
teleop	87	22
endgame	21	12
foul	0	0
total	136	75

Result

Final score

136 – 75

Prediction correct · off by 24.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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