Qualification · Qualification 57

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

190.75 – 238.39

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

177 – 339

Prediction correct · off by 57.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 204.9 ±16.7

10940AVIATRONIX

Season APEX 18.7Event APEX 1.61Rank 30Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 76

11098MATRIX

Season APEX 32.2Event APEX 13.61Rank 13Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

6431NoktaParantez

Season APEX 154Event APEX 175.53Rank 5Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 344.9 ±12.2

11300ZENITH

Season APEX 43.6Event APEX 14.13Rank 17Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9609Paraducks

Season APEX 246.2Event APEX 202.99Rank 1Record 11-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10542EAGLE WARRIORS

Season APEX 55.1Event APEX 21.27Rank 26Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10940, 11098, 6431

/ 100 compat

Projected

190.8 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 10940, 11098, 6431

Auto

26.5 15%

Teleop

98.0 55%

Endgame

53.3 30%

Strengths

· 6431 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11300, 9609, 10542

/ 100 compat

Projected

238.4 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 11300, 9609, 10542

Auto

57.3 25%

Teleop

109.8 47%

Endgame

65.6 28%

Strengths

· 9609 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.25 · Blue 1.69

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score190.8pts

Blue projected score238.4pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -47.6
Score range: 166–263
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 516 vs event baseline 138.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

204.9Season APEX344.9

26.5Auto57.3

98Teleop109.8

53.3Endgame65.6

0Consistency55

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	80
teleop	77	162
endgame	15	87
foul	60	10
total	177	339

Result

Final score

177 – 339

Prediction correct · off by 57.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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